Media Room

On the Hill - Election Update, 10 September

The Coalition, led by Tony Abbott, will form a Government following a strong win at the federal election on Saturday.

As counting continues today, the Coalition is ahead in 89 House of Representatives seats, having achieved a nationwide two party preferred swing of about 3.35 per cent.

Recording its lowest primary vote since 1903, Labor leads in 56 seats, with minor parties and independents ahead in the remainder.

Party NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS ACT NT National
Australian Labor Party 19 18 7 3 5 1 2 1 56
Liberal/National Coalition 29 17 21 12 6 3 0 1 89
Liberal 22 15 0 12 6 3 0 0 58
Liberal National Party 0 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 21
The Nationals 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 9
Country Liberals (NT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
The Greens 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Katter’s Australian Party 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Palmer United Party 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Independent 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
TOTAL 48 37 30 15 11 5 2 2 150

Source: www.aec.gov.au 10/9/13, 2.00pm

The Greens’ Adam Bandt will be returned in the seat of Melbourne despite a small swing to Labor. The Katter’s Australian Party leader Bob Katter will retain his FNQ seat of Kennedy with a reduced margin and Palmer United Party leader Clive Palmer will win the Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax off the Liberal National Party, following the retirement of Alex Somlyay.

The high profile independent MP Andrew Wilkie has been returned in the southern Tasmanian seat of Denison with a 14 per cent swing.

However in the Victorian regional seat of Indi, the Coalition’s industry spokesperson Sophie Mirabella is in the fight of her political life to hold her seat, and currently trails the independent candidate, Cathy McGowan.  Five other seats remain too close to call; Barton, Eden-Monaro and Reid in NSW, McEwen in Victoria and Capricornia in Queensland.

House of Representative seats likely to change hands

Electorate

Held by

Gained by

Swing

Banks NSW

ALP 1.4%

Liberals

3.3% to LIB

Bass TAS

ALP 6.7%

Liberals

10.8% to LIB

Braddon TAS

ALP 7.5%

Liberals

9.8% to LIB

Corangamite VIC

ALP 0.3%

Liberals

4.1% to LIB

Deakin VIC

ALP 0.6%

Liberals

3.3% to LIB

Hindmarsh SA

ALP 6.1%

Liberals

8.0% to LIB

La Trobe VIC

ALP 1.7%

Liberals

5.7% to LIB

Lindsay NSW

ALP 1.1%

Liberals

3.8% to LIB

Lyne NSW

IND 12.7%

Nationals

2.7% to NAT

Lyons TAS

ALP 12.3%

Liberals

13.7% to LIB

New England NSW

IND 21.5%

Nationals

4.4% to NAT

Page NSW

ALP 4.2%

Nationals

6.8% to NAT

Robertson NSW

ALP 1.0%

Liberals

3.4% to LIB

Source: www.aec.gov.au 10/9/13, 2.00pm

House of Representatives seats still in doubt

Electorate

Held By

Leading Party

Swing

Barton NSW

ALP 6.9%

ALP ahead

6.8% to LIB

Capricornia QLD

ALP 3.7%

ALP ahead

3.5% to LNP

Dobell NSW

ALP 5.1%

LIB ahead

5.5% to LIB

Eden-Monaro NSW

ALP 4.2%

LIB ahead

4.6% to LIB

Fairfax QLD

LNP 7.0%

PUP ahead

8.4% from LNP

Indi VIC

LIB 9.0%

IND ahead

7.1% from LIB

McEwen VIC

ALP 9.2%

LIB ahead

9.3% to LIB

Parramatta NSW

ALP 4.4%

ALP ahead

3.5% to LIB

Petrie QLD

ALP 2.5%

LNP ahead

3.1% to LNP

Reid NSW

ALP 2.7%

LIB ahead

3.1% to LIB

Source: www.aec.gov.au 10/9/13, 2.00pm

The Senate

The composition of the new Senate is less clear though, with complex preference allocations likely to see the election of a number of new Senators representing so-called ‘micro-parties’.

In NSW, the Liberal Democratic Party’s David Leyonhjelm will likely win a Senate seat, after his party secured nearly 9 per cent of the vote before preferences.  The LDP is a socially and economically libertarian party and its platform stands against any increases to the size and role of government and includes advocacy for firearm ownership, marriage equality, lower taxes, relaxed marijuana laws and voluntary euthanasia. After being drawn first on the Senate ballot paper, it may have benefitted from the donkey vote and confusion by some Liberal voters.

Clive Palmer’s Palmer United Party will likely secure Senate seats in both Queensland and Tasmania with former Australian rugby league international Glenn Lazarus and former soldier Jacqui Lambie likely to be elected.

In Victoria, the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party’s Ricky Muir could possibly unseat Liberal Senator Helen Kroger in Victoria, despite his party receiving just 0.51 per cent of the vote before the distribution of preferences.

Independent Senator Nick Xenophon polled strongly in the South Australian Senate race.  However, preference deals – including the Greens’ preferencing the No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics – will prevent his running mate, Stirling Griff, from getting across the line.  As a result, high profile Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will likely be returned, along with her Greens colleagues Peter Whish-Wilson in Tasmania, Janet Rice in Victoria and Scott Ludlam in Western Australia.

In Western Australia, former gridiron player Wayne Dropulich may secure election to the Senate representing the Australian Sports Party, while in South Australia, former National President of the Housing Industry Association and former Liberal Party candidate, Bob Day, is set to be elected representing the Family First Party. That party last held the balance of power in the 42nd parliament, with Steve Fielding losing his Victorian Senate seat at the 2010 election.

The distribution of preferences may take some weeks to finalise.

However, the new Senate will likely cause headaches for the Coalition – despite its strong mandate – as it seeks to implement its agenda.

Prime Minister-elect gets to work

The Senate is but one of the challenges for Mr Abbott, who has spent his first days as Prime Minister-elect receiving briefings from senior Government officials and meeting with his Coalition leadership team to begin the process of setting up his Government.  Once the Coalition agreement between the Liberal and National Parties is finalised and the Party Room has met, Mr Abbott will finalise the composition of his Ministry before being sworn to office early next week.

The outgoing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd retained the Brisbane seat of Griffith despite a swing of just over five per cent. In his concession speech on Saturday night, Mr Rudd announced that he will immediately step down as leader of the Labor Party and had earlier indicated that it was his intention to continue to serve as a member of parliament.

As a result, leadership aspirants have already begun jockeying for position within the new Labor opposition.  While former Treasurer Chris Bowen has indicated that he will not be a candidate, the former Deputy Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and former Education Minister Bill Shorten are yet to declare their hands. There appears, however, to be a mood to find a consensus candidate to unite and begin rebuilding the party, avoiding a rank-and-file ballot.  The Labor caucus is due to meet this Friday.

Further election analysis

For further election analysis, clients can contact Capital Hill Advisory on (02) 6198 3210 or via email: enquiries@capitalhilladvisory.com.au

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